With less than an hour to go before the official polling stations close the Eastleigh News election poll predicts a narrow win for Maria Hutchings with a majority of around of 2000.
This would seem entirely feasible given the general national swing towards the Conservatives.
Chris Huhne’s vote would hold up at around 19,000.
The real story is a collapse in the Labour vote with most votes going to the Conservatives and UKIP – who save their deposit and push Labour into forth place as they have done in local and European elections.
You may think that a poll with 104 votes is not very scientific – and you would be right!
However, bear in mind that ‘you gov’ polls regularly poll between 1300 – 1500 people or 0.03% of the National electorate.
The Eastleigh News poll samples 0.14% of the Eastleigh electorate.
Of course all this may prove is that more Tories read Eastleigh News than Lib Dems – and readers should also bear in mind that all bookmakers still put Chris Huhne the ‘Odds ON’ winner – but with Maria Hutchings close behind at around evens.
No gambler would want to bet on either one at those sort of odds.
Still, not long to wait now!!